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Insights, analysis, and updates from the GNG team.

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DTMMPLX+2MPLXWES+1

Rare As Hen's Teeth: 2 Income Stocks That Work At Every Age

Total return ≈ dividend yield + dividend growth, so 5% yield + 8% growth ≈ 13% annualized - the math that makes high-yield, high-growth stocks exceptionally scarce
Use four screening questions: does yield+growth beat ~5% (short Treasuries), does cash flow track inflation, is payout covered and tied to cash-flow growth, what's the catch

Total return ≈ dividend yield + dividend growth, so 5% yield + 8% growth ≈ 13% annualized - the math that makes high-yield, high-growth stocks exceptionally scarce
Use four screening questions: does yield+growth beat ~5% (short Treasuries), does cash flow track inflation, is payout covered and tied to cash-flow growth, what's the catch
MPLX snapshot - 7.5% yield, $1.0765/qtr distribution, 12.5% recent raises, 2Q26 adj EBITDA $1.8bn (+5% YoY), DCF $1.45bn vs distributions $1.092bn, coverage ~1.33x

Midstream MLPsMidstream MLPsDividend Investing

LeoLeo Nelissen10/72026-10-0716m16 MIN76760

SCHDBTI+3BTIACN+2

The Barbell Behind My Dividend Sleeve

Balanced IRA 51 holdings (Oct 1, 2026) operates as a barbell - DGTR income sleeve targets ~4% starting yield and ~6.5% annual dividend growth
DGTR income sleeve is roughly 30 dividend payers plus SCHD, LVHI, VYMI, ENFR, representing about 42% of the Balanced IRA, designed to fund spendable cash

Balanced IRA 51 holdings (Oct 1, 2026) operates as a barbell - DGTR income sleeve targets ~4% starting yield and ~6.5% annual dividend growth
DGTR income sleeve is roughly 30 dividend payers plus SCHD, LVHI, VYMI, ENFR, representing about 42% of the Balanced IRA, designed to fund spendable cash
Far end concentrates on dividend accelerators and high-growth names - MA and MSFT for dividend acceleration, NVDA, MU, GEV and AI funds for capital growth

Dividend GrowthDividend GrowthDividend Investing

GlennGlenn Ford10/72026-10-0720m20 MIN89890

Is Asia Really Too Broke to Buy Fuel?

Asia not facing imminent fuel shortages - the crisis is rapid depletion of government fiscal buffers and FX reserves, not an immediate solvency or supply halt
Central banks in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam saw FX reserves drop 15-40% since hostilities, but most entered with 6-8 months import coverage, limiting immediate BoP risk

Asia not facing imminent fuel shortages - the crisis is rapid depletion of government fiscal buffers and FX reserves, not an immediate solvency or supply halt
Central banks in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam saw FX reserves drop 15-40% since hostilities, but most entered with 6-8 months import coverage, limiting immediate BoP risk
Policy risk - subsidies force higher debt issuance and divert capex, monitor sovereign subsidy exposure, short-term bond supply, and fiscal contingency measures

TonyTony Nash10/72026-10-078m8 MIN39390

Stop Killing Games: How Reverse Engineering is Derailing Planned Obsolescence by Video Game Publishers

AI-accelerated, clean-room reverse engineering lets communities rebuild game servers, undermining publishers' planned obsolescence and threatening live-service revenue mechanics.
The $200B gaming market and $46B PC segment face exposure - over 60% of PC playtime is on titles released before 2019, enabling long-term community resistance.

AI-accelerated, clean-room reverse engineering lets communities rebuild game servers, undermining publishers' planned obsolescence and threatening live-service revenue mechanics.
The $200B gaming market and $46B PC segment face exposure - over 60% of PC playtime is on titles released before 2019, enabling long-term community resistance.
Unofficial servers cause telemetry blindness - MAU and ARPU drop from corporate dashboards, while legal pressure builds, including 1.3M 'Stop Killing Games' verified signatures.

TonyTony Nash10/62026-10-065m5 MIN77772

CPKMI+2KMIUNP+1

Re-Shoring Is A Multi-Decade Trend: My Deep Dive Into 2 Gems Most Investors Only Half Understand

Re-shoring is a multi-decade trend - North American goods/services trade totaled $1.93 trillion in 2024, so geography will sustain cross-border industrial and energy demand
Mexico's energy dependence deepens - U.S. gas met ~75% of Mexico's demand in 2025 (vs 39% in 2015), and gas generated >60% of Mexico's electricity

Re-shoring is a multi-decade trend - North American goods/services trade totaled $1.93 trillion in 2024, so geography will sustain cross-border industrial and energy demand
Mexico's energy dependence deepens - U.S. gas met ~75% of Mexico's demand in 2025 (vs 39% in 2015), and gas generated >60% of Mexico's electricity
CPKC is the only single-line railroad linking Canada, the U.S. and Mexico - land-bridge revenue rose from ~$100m in 2023 to a ~$600m run-rate, targeting $1bn

Stock AnalysisStock AnalysisSupply Chain

LeoLeo Nelissen10/62026-10-0616m16 MIN1471474

SITM

Why I Initiated SiTime in the Vulcan Quant Growth Portfolio

Initiated SITM for accelerating demand, rising earnings revisions, AI-relevant precision-timing products, and solid cash generation warranting portfolio exposure
Quant screen strength - A+ growth and earnings-revision grades, A momentum; scored 90.7/100 with 40% weight on quant and 40% on forward growth, 10% financial, 10% value. Overlaps on Quant somewhat.

Initiated SITM for accelerating demand, rising earnings revisions, AI-relevant precision-timing products, and solid cash generation warranting portfolio exposure
Quant screen strength - A+ growth and earnings-revision grades, A momentum; scored 90.7/100 with 40% weight on quant and 40% on forward growth, 10% financial, 10% value. Overlaps on Quant somewhat.
Company fundamentals show Q2 revenue +127% to $157.4M, positive GAAP operating income, and trailing free-cash-flow margin of 18.1%

QuantQuantArtificial Intelligence

GlennGlenn Ford10/52026-10-0512m12 MIN1091090

Understanding the Eurodollar

Eurodollars are US dollar deposits held outside the US - dollars stay on deposit at US banks, so a $5m London deposit leaves Fed reserves unchanged
Eurobanks cannot create US dollars by lending - their loans transfer ownership of US bank deposits rather than expand dollar money supply

Eurodollars are US dollar deposits held outside the US - dollars stay on deposit at US banks, so a $5m London deposit leaves Fed reserves unchanged
Eurobanks cannot create US dollars by lending - their loans transfer ownership of US bank deposits rather than expand dollar money supply
Euromarket liabilities are mainly time deposits, maturities 1 day to 5 years, all pay interest; loans priced at LIBOR plus spread, typically repriced every 3-6 months

EurodollarEurodollar

AlbertAlbert Marko10/52026-10-054m4 MIN3293290

While You Watched Iran: China’s Stalled Pivot in a Wartime World

China's activism is defensive, not dominant - managing a failing Iranian partner, a purged PLA high command, and a domestic capital strike instead of seizing strategic advantage
US and allied strikes degraded Iran's air defenses and naval nodes, Kharg Island loadings choked - China offered rhetorical cover but no tanker escorts, pressuring Shandong teapot refiners

China's activism is defensive, not dominant - managing a failing Iranian partner, a purged PLA high command, and a domestic capital strike instead of seizing strategic advantage
US and allied strikes degraded Iran's air defenses and naval nodes, Kharg Island loadings choked - China offered rhetorical cover but no tanker escorts, pressuring Shandong teapot refiners
PLA anti-corruption purges hollowed the Central Military Commission - operational initiative centralized to Xi and Zhang, producing low-risk maneuvers and operational paralysis

Geopolitical RiskGeopolitical Risk

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-054m4 MIN3743748

COST

Costco Earnings and Jobless Claims: False Comfort?

Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 vs 201,000 consensus, prior week revised to 198,000; low claims reflect low layoff velocity, not robust hiring absorption.
Costco Q4 revenue $95.723B vs $94.82B est, membership fees $1.85B (+7.3%); adjusted EPS $6.60 after removing a 15c tariff windfall, narrowing the beat.

Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 vs 201,000 consensus, prior week revised to 198,000; low claims reflect low layoff velocity, not robust hiring absorption.
Costco Q4 revenue $95.723B vs $94.82B est, membership fees $1.85B (+7.3%); adjusted EPS $6.60 after removing a 15c tariff windfall, narrowing the beat.
Clean comps +6.7% (US +7.2%), digital +19.8%; gross margin fell 11bps to 11.02% while operating margin rose to 3.97% via SG&A leverage - signals trade-down demand.

Retail salesRetail salesearnings

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-053m3 MIN1131130

Resilience or Resistance? Earnings Seem Okay but Consumers Are Squeezed Incomes. A Few Things to Watch.

Aug PCE +0.3% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, +3.0% y/y - July revised to 0.1% so August accelerated vs revised baseline, inflation still compounding purchasing-power loss
Real consumption +0.6% in Aug vs real disposable income 0.0% and personal saving rate 4.1% - households drawing savings and revolving credit to sustain spending, watch credit-card debt and delinquencies

Aug PCE +0.3% m/m, +3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, +3.0% y/y - July revised to 0.1% so August accelerated vs revised baseline, inflation still compounding purchasing-power loss
Real consumption +0.6% in Aug vs real disposable income 0.0% and personal saving rate 4.1% - households drawing savings and revolving credit to sustain spending, watch credit-card debt and delinquencies
Equities rallied but 10y Treasury ~5.27% - yields reflect heavy Treasury issuance, sticky services inflation and energy risk; Fed constrained, expect floating rates higher for longer, hedge rate exposure

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-055m5 MIN79790

Europe's Sovereign Debt Fracture

French 10-year OATs near 5%, spread vs German Bunds >125bps, signaling end of Paris-Bonn yield parity and a sovereign credit repricing for eurozone core
France's public debt ~115% of GDP, structural deficit >5%, and parliamentary paralysis make fiscal conditionality politically infeasible, raising persistent euro-area funding costs

French 10-year OATs near 5%, spread vs German Bunds >125bps, signaling end of Paris-Bonn yield parity and a sovereign credit repricing for eurozone core
France's public debt ~115% of GDP, structural deficit >5%, and parliamentary paralysis make fiscal conditionality politically infeasible, raising persistent euro-area funding costs
ECB tools like the Transmission Protection Instrument face Northern creditor resistance - intervention requires fiscal conditionality Paris will reject, so systemic repricing likely persists

BAS.DEBAS.DEVOW3.DE

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-059m9 MIN86860

CVXXOM+3XOMVLO+2

How a US Diesel Export Ban Could Impact Global Fuel Markets

Administration considering diesel export ban after Trump cited $6.53/gal retail diesel, Treasury says full or partial restriction being studied with midterms six weeks away
Logistics constraint - pipeline northbound at capacity, Jones Act tanker fleet limited, Gulf barrels cannot be rerouted quickly to Atlantic seaboard or California

Administration considering diesel export ban after Trump cited $6.53/gal retail diesel, Treasury says full or partial restriction being studied with midterms six weeks away
Logistics constraint - pipeline northbound at capacity, Jones Act tanker fleet limited, Gulf barrels cannot be rerouted quickly to Atlantic seaboard or California
Full embargo unlikely due to market and legal risks, expect targeted quotas, inventory minimums, temporary waivers or Jones Act relaxation as a political compromise

Energy SectorEnergy Sector

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-054m4 MIN1521523

China’s Eurasian Oil & Gas Pipelines: Expansionism and Existential Risk

Eurasian pipelines are a targeted energy insurance policy, not a pathway to territorial expansion
Pipelines supply ~19% of China’s gas burn; Central Asia flows 36-40 bcm (<10% of demand), Power of Siberia I ~38 bcm (~9%)

Eurasian pipelines are a targeted energy insurance policy, not a pathway to territorial expansion
Pipelines supply ~19% of China’s gas burn; Central Asia flows 36-40 bcm (<10% of demand), Power of Siberia I ~38 bcm (~9%)
Overland crude covers <10% of imports - Kazakhstan-China 400k bpd (<4%), Sino-Myanmar 440k bpd (~4%); both face throughput constraints and maritime dependence

Energy SectorEnergy SectorChina Foreign Policy

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-058m8 MIN86860

The Permanent Underclass: Why Every Dollar of Post-2020 Wealth Went to Asset Owners While Hourly Raises Failed to Beat Inflation or Buy a Home

Post-2020 gains flowed to asset owners, not hourly workers - temporary wage compression did not translate into lasting balance-sheet gains
2019-24 wage changes: 10th +15.3%, 20th +11.4%, median +5.8%, 90th +6.9% - real wage growth stalled in 2025-26

Post-2020 gains flowed to asset owners, not hourly workers - temporary wage compression did not translate into lasting balance-sheet gains
2019-24 wage changes: 10th +15.3%, 20th +11.4%, median +5.8%, 90th +6.9% - real wage growth stalled in 2025-26
Asset appreciation dwarfed wage gains - S&P 500 more than doubled Mar 2020 to late 2024; 10% on $2M yields ~$200k vs ~$4,680 for a $15/hr worker

WagesWagesUS Economy

TonyTony Nash10/52026-10-0515m15 MIN1651655

CME+5CMECNQ+4

The Fed Can't Print Oil: How Inflation Really Works, And What We Want To Own Before The Midterms

Core thesis - most money is created by bank lending, deposits arise when loans are made, so money supply often reacts to credit demand rather than driving prices unilaterally
FOMC hiked 25bp on Sep 16 to a 3.75%-4.00% target in a 12-0 vote, first hike since Jul 2023; 16 of 18 officials expect another hike, markets price ~63% for Oct 27-28

Core thesis - most money is created by bank lending, deposits arise when loans are made, so money supply often reacts to credit demand rather than driving prices unilaterally
FOMC hiked 25bp on Sep 16 to a 3.75%-4.00% target in a 12-0 vote, first hike since Jul 2023; 16 of 18 officials expect another hike, markets price ~63% for Oct 27-28
Energy shock - gasoline up >27% Y/Y, Fed hiking to raise borrowing costs and stop oil-driven price rises from broadening; 10-year Treasury yield at highest level since 2007

Federal ReserveFederal ReserveMacro Strategy

LeoLeo Nelissen10/52026-10-0517m17 MIN14514510

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